Through those first 17 games, Tatis is batting .242 with 16 hits, four doubles, seven RBIs and four stolen bases across 66 at-bats. On the surface, it is not a complete offensive collapse. In fact, he has shown signs getting hot recently, hitting .320 over the past seven days with eight hits, four RBIs and two stolen bases. This heat up has coincided with a questionable couple game position move to second base for the former Platinum Glove right fielder. But the slugging simply has not been there. His .303 slugging percentage and .619 OPS represent a dramatic departure from the production levels that once made him one of the most feared hitters in baseball.
To understand just how abnormal this stretch is, it helps to look at Tatis’ track record through the same point in prior seasons.
In his rookie campaign in 2019, Tatis announced himself immediately, hitting his first career home run in just his fifth game. By the 17-game mark, he had already launched five home runs. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he came out swinging, belting eight home runs through his first 17 games, a pace that would have projected to elite power production over a full schedule.
His peak power season in 2021 followed a similar script. Tatis had already hit seven home runs through 17 games, on his way to a 42-home run campaign that firmly established him as one of the game’s premier sluggers.
Then came 2022, a lost year that continues to loom over his career trajectory. A motorcycle accident sidelined him before the season even began, and just as he was nearing a return, Tatis was suspended for violating MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy. He did not play a single major league game that year.
When he returned in 2023, the early power was still present, albeit at a slightly reduced level. He hit four home runs through his first 17 games, a step down from previous seasons, but still within the realm of expected production for a hitter of his caliber. In 2024, that number ticked up to five home runs through 17 games. In 2025, it climbed again to six.
And now, in 2026, it has dropped to zero. The trend is difficult to ignore. From 2019 through 2021, Tatis was an early-season power force, routinely sitting between five and eight home runs through the first few weeks. Since returning from suspension, that early burst has steadily diminished: four in 2023, five in 2024, six in 2025, and now none.
What makes the current drought even more notable is how long it has been since Tatis last homered in a Major League game. His most recent MLB home run came on September 27, 2025, meaning he has now gone from the end of last season through the opening 17 games of 2026 without leaving the yard. While he did hit two home runs earlier this year while representing the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, those blasts have not translated into regular-season power production with the Padres.
Over the course of his career, Tatis’ full-season home run totals tell a similar story. He hit 22 in just 84 games as a rookie in 2019, followed by 17 in the shortened 2020 60-game campaign. His 42-home run explosion in 2021 remains the high-water mark. But since returning from the PED suspension, he has not approached that level, finishing with 25 home runs in both 2023 and 2025, and 21 in 2024. Still strong numbers, but no longer the elite, game-breaking output that once defined him.
That context is fueling growing speculation among fans and observers about what might be behind the shift. Ardent critics point to the lingering impact of his 2022 suspension and whether his pre-suspension power was artificially enhanced by the PEDs he was ultimately busted for. Others suggest mechanical adjustments, changes in approach, or even the natural evolution of his game as he focuses more on contact, speed, and all-around production rather than pure power.
There is also the possibility that this is simply a small-sample anomaly. Seventeen games is a tiny fraction of the full season, and power can return quickly. A single multi-home run game could dramatically change the narrative overnight. And to Tatis’ credit, he is not completely lost at the plate. His recent surge, eight hits in his last seven days, suggests he may be finding his rhythm.
The broader team context only makes the situation more intriguing. The Padres are currently riding a six-game winning streak and sit just two games behind the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, who have once again opened the season as one of baseball’s most dominant clubs. San Diego’s ability to stack wins without Tatis providing his signature power underscores both the depth of the roster and the potential ceiling if he begins to heat up.
That context is fueling growing speculation among fans and observers about what might be behind the shift. Ardent critics point to the lingering impact of his 2022 suspension and whether his pre-suspension power was artificially enhanced by the PEDs he was ultimately busted for. Others suggest mechanical adjustments, changes in approach, or even the natural evolution of his game as he focuses more on contact, speed, and all-around production rather than pure power.
There is also the possibility that this is simply a small-sample anomaly. Seventeen games is a tiny fraction of the full season, and power can return quickly. A single multi-home run game could dramatically change the narrative overnight. And to Tatis’ credit, he is not completely lost at the plate. His recent surge, eight hits in his last seven days, suggests he may be finding his rhythm.
The broader team context only makes the situation more intriguing. The Padres are currently riding a six-game winning streak and sit just two games behind the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, who have once again opened the season as one of baseball’s most dominant clubs. San Diego’s ability to stack wins without Tatis providing his signature power underscores both the depth of the roster and the potential ceiling if he begins to heat up.
It also comes at a time when the rest of the team has begun to show some power. While not every Padres hitter has homered, several have already contributed to the team’s early-season total, with Ramón Laureano leading the group, making Tatis’ absence from that column even more pronounced. Among regular position players, only Freddy Fermin, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Andújar, and Bryce Johnson remain without a home run, all four players with more limited playing time.
Tatis's underlying numbers still raise concerns. A .303 slugging percentage is far below his career norms, and the absence of home runs despite regular playing time stands in stark contrast to every previous season of his career. For a player who once seemed capable of changing a game with a single swing at any moment, the lack of that threat alters the dynamic of the Padres’ lineup.
The question now is not whether Tatis can hit home runs, his track record makes that clear, but when the power will return, and in what form. Is this simply a slow start that will correct itself over time? Or is it part of a broader shift in his offensive profile that has been quietly unfolding since his return from suspension?
For now, the Padres’ star right fielder remains productive in flashes, active on the bases, and increasingly sharp at the plate in recent days. But until the ball starts leaving the yard again, the conversation is going to follow him.
Because for Fernando Tatis Jr., zero is not just a number. It is a question.
The question now is not whether Tatis can hit home runs, his track record makes that clear, but when the power will return, and in what form. Is this simply a slow start that will correct itself over time? Or is it part of a broader shift in his offensive profile that has been quietly unfolding since his return from suspension?
For now, the Padres’ star right fielder remains productive in flashes, active on the bases, and increasingly sharp at the plate in recent days. But until the ball starts leaving the yard again, the conversation is going to follow him.
Because for Fernando Tatis Jr., zero is not just a number. It is a question.
Originally published on April 15, 2026.